Election Results and the Art of Local Spin

There are many good sites where you can find all the Wednesday morning quarterbacking and lots of bloggers all too happy to tell you what went wrong yesterday in Virginia. Most of what they say is true.

The campaign from the top down was not well managed. The lack of a coordinated campaign and the disorganization of the DPVA, the DGA's not coming through with money in the general election, our being seriously outspent, the campaign itself not having a coherent message or strategy - all true. Yes, they stayed on the thesis far too long and spent far too little time talking about who Creigh Deeds was and what he stood for. There was no positive message, no reason for voters to vote for Deeds. And the Deeds Country tour was ill-conceived . Deeds should have been campaigning in the urban crescent of Northern Virginia, Richmond, and Hampton Road. And on and on.

And, yes, they were going against a stiff head wind from history. For 24 years, the party that takes the White House loses the state house in Virginia. In addition to all the campaign missteps, a blow out this big also says that the Democratic base was dispirited and unhappy with the Democratic Party. And to deny that Obama had anything to do with it is pure self-serving spin.

Lowell is fond of quoting Jim Webb, "the fish rots from the head." Guess what? It does. And that head isn't in Virginia. Not when we also lost New Jersey and an important vote on same sex marriage in liberal Maine. It's all unconnected, all local - oh really?

Some want to claim that our loss in Virginia is all the fault of the state party and the campaign and is unconnected to what went on elsewhere.

Yeah, right!

It's as if they never read Huffington Post, which daily runs diaries by well known progressives about why they are discouraged with Obama's leadership. There is this from Arianna herself.

Indeed, reading the book, I often found myself wondering what Candidate Obama would think of President Obama. Would he look at what the White House is doing and say, "that's what I and my supporters worked so hard for?"

How did the candidate who got into the race because he'd decided that "the core leadership had turned rotten" and that "the people were getting hosed" become the president who has decided that the American people can only have as much change as Olympia Snowe will allow?

How did the candidate who told a stadium of supporters in Denver that "the greatest risk we can take is to try the same old politics with the same old players and expect a different result" become the president who has surrounded himself with the same old players trying the same old politics, expecting a different result?

How could a president whose North Star as a candidate was that he "would not forget the middle class" choose as his chief economic advisor a man who recently argued against extending unemployment benefits in the middle of the worst economic times since the Great Depression?

Huffington goes on to rightly castigate Obama's reliance on Larry Summers, Obama's chief economic adviser and former Clinton-era Treasury Secretary, who opposed extending unemployment benefits and favored bank bailouts but no aid to middle class homeowners facing foreclosure.

Following Huffington's blog post, is this one from Dave Zirin, sports correspondent to Nation Magazine.

But if last night's election results reveal nothing else, the time for swooning over photo-ops has long passed. This is not rocket science. Throughout the country, Republican turnout stayed the same as in 2008 while Democratic turnout cratered. That's what happens when you don't deliver the goods. For all the people who voted Democrat because they wanted to bring home the troops, stand for civil rights for all people, and see real job creation and union protections, the last year has been a thin gruel indeed.

It's not about accomplishing my personal laundry list of wishes. It's about forward progress -- or even effort -- from the Oval office. The White House didn't say one word about the Maine referendum to protect LBGT marriage equality. AG Holder even said last week that he didn't "know enough about it" to comment, which was both a lie and a slap in the face. Obama hasn't fought a lick for the pro-labor Employee Free Choice Act or the Employment Non-Discrimination Act known as ENDA. And please don't mention Afghanistan, Iraq or the Wall Street bailouts. Please don't mention an economic policy geared toward socializing debt and privatizing profit. There is no effort coming from the White House that moves the people toward the direction that people rallied, campaigned, and voted for in 2008 and that is an indictment of this administration. It also reveals something very bankrupt about the nature of our political system and the Democratic Party. The people spoke and it mattered little. Now we need to do more.

Indeed, there has been a steady drumbeat of disappointment with Obama's leadership and his choices over at Huffington Post, Firedoglake, Daily Kos, and other national progressive sites.

Don't get me wrong. None of these people dislike him. None of them want to take their vote back. But progressives nationally are growing disheartened as they watch health care reform, the public option, EFCA, cap and trade and a bunch of other Democratic legislation being pushed to the back burner by delay after delay. After all, this is the party that won 53 percent of the presidential vote, 59 seats in the Senate, and should be claiming a mandate, not kissing Queen Olympia's ring and begging for her approval.

To be sure, I think a large number of people really do want bipartisanship. And they want civility. They can see clearly that Obama is civil and has tried his level best to achieve that bipartisan cooperation. He's stood up to his own party's liberal to attempt compromise with Congressional conservatives . I think most voters get it that he's done his level best and that the other side has been intractable. Now, those voters who went to the polls last November really want the change they voted for.

While Virginia Democrats squabble that Deeds lost young people and blacks didn't show up, the reason that happened was both that Deeds didn't give them a reason to, and neither has Obama, Emanuel and Harry Reid. Voters wanted civility. But they didn't want real reform sacrificed to a false god of bipartisanship. And the public hungers for a leader, not a capitulator in chief. That's why a good deal of the base stayed home.

That is especially true in Northern Virginia. Look, lots of voters here are federal employees. Or they work for contractors. In either case, they are more plugged into Washington than Richmond. And they have a better grasp of beltway politics than they do of state politics. Perhaps more than in any other part of the state, what happens in Washington, DC actually is local for them.

Finally, Nate Silver, one of the best statisticians offered this comparison between Virginia and New Jersey, the other state that switched from blue to red, though with not nearly as devastating a result.

In New Jersey, you had an electorate that gave Barack Obama a 57 percent approval rating -- the identical fraction to the 57 percent that elected Obama last November. In Virginia, Obama's approval rating was 47 percent, a significant drop from the 53 percent of the vote that he earned.

In New Jersey, it was Jon Corzine who tried to nationalize the race, making sure that everyone knew that Chris Christie was a Republican. And insofar as this went, it worked: voters who said their main issue was health care went for Corzine 78-19 (!), according to exit polls, and he won voters focused on the economy and jobs 58-36. Christie won because he focused on two local issues that are very important to New Jerseyans -- corruption and property taxes, and won overwhelmingly among voters who keyed in on these issues. In Virginia, meanwhile, it was Bob McDonnell who won the economy voters -- 57-42, and the candidates split the vote among those most concerned about health care.

As much as I hate to go against the wind in the Virginia blogosphere, Democrats have to realize the truth, which is that all politics isn't local - that oft-quoted statement was made by a very wise man in the middle of the last century who didn't live long enough to experience the instant connection of today's Internet, blogs, and Facebook and Twitter feeds, which make the whole globe local.

Indeed, a bank that fails on Wall Street can bring down an economy in London, Germany, and Singapore. So much for our definition of local

All politics is local, national and global. It's all interconnected now. So Creigh Deeds' bad campaign, growing impatience with change that is getting harder to believe in, and Democrats running for cover from governing by hiding in Olympia Snowe's coat pocket all had a hand in the debacle. Because it wasn't local. We lost Virginia big. We lost New Jersey, and we lost an important vote on same sex marriage in Maine. That's lack of leadership and competence from the top down.

Anything else is just spin.

Brian Moran Rallies GOTV at NoVa CLC

Attempt 116 to post this update via the truly dreadful iPhone. There will be no editing and no proofreading because frankly Ive given up on this as a viable texting device amnd am only waiting for my contract with ATT toven and I'm so otta there

Anyway pictured in an earlier post was Brian eith CWA activist Delore Gerber. Brian wkas at the NoVa Central Labor Federation to rally everyone for Creigh Deeds Jody Wagner and Steve Shannon

while there I asked him about recent rumors that he was running for DPVA. He shot me am quizzical look and said he didn't know where the rumor started but thinks maybe Richmond. He didn't completely rule out a run but said emphatically that it had not been his original idea or plan

Brian Moran Rallies Troops at CLC GOTV Rally

Ignore WaPo: Kaye Kory is Superior Candidate in 38th District

I will be honest with you. Overall, I am pleased with the Washington Post's editorial endorsements in the Northern Virginia House of Delegates races and with their statewide picks. The only exception is in the 38th District, where they picked Danny Smith over Kaye Kory. But I understand it.

I think it makes the WaPo nervous to be seen as primarily Democratic. Despite the carping from the far right, the Post is not a liberal or even a Democratic newspaper. Nor is it a conservative paper. It views itself, accurately, as a centrist, pro business publication opposing either the extreme social agenda from the right or more progressive economic positions from the left. They are certainly anti-union. And they have allowed George Will to prattle on and on with his disinformation about climate change. The main thing that seems to get them to support Democrats is that they are pro choice. I am pretty sure that if they found an unabashed pro choice Republican, they would support and endorse that candidate to the hilt.

So, the Post must have been distressed to find there was not a single Republican candidate in Northern Virginia who was moderate enough for them to endorse. Except for Danny Smith. The problem is their endorsement was so vague and general that it was almost damning with faint praise.

Here is the Washington Post endorsement, which I am reprinting in full because it is so short (and is only a small section of a much larger round up of endorsements)

District 38: Danny R. Smith, the Republican candidate, is a bright, independent-minded civic leader who cares about promoting affordable housing. A Realtor and corporate executive, he would bring a refreshingly bipartisan sensibility to Richmond. He's a better choice than his opponent, L. Kaye Kory, a sincere but lackluster Fairfax school board member who beat incumbent Robert Hull in a Democratic primary.

The only thing lackluster here is the Post's embarrassingly short and exceedingly generalized writing.

As a matter of fact, if you read Lowell on this, you will find that Kaye is anything but lackluster. Instead, she has been an effective and independent leader who has accomplished a great deal as a school board member and a civic leader. Here are just a few of the points he enumerates.

Second, Kaye has an excellent record on the school board, including leading the fight to rebuild Glasgow Middle School as a "green" school, with solar panels for hot water; motion sensor, high efficiency fluorescent lighting; low flow fixtures for faucets, toilets, urinals and shower heads; etc....

...In addition, Kaye served as a VISTA volunteer, as a counselor for troubled youth at "Runaway House" in the District, and much more

That much more includes the fact that Kaye served on the Annandale Chamber of Commerce, the Virginia League of Conservation Voters, and the NAACP.

Furthermore, if you go her campaign website, Kaye does not simply list a catalogue of bullet point positions consisting of boiler plate generalities, as Danny Smith does on his website. She provides detailed explanations of her plans and positions so that voters can see exactly where she stands.

First, here is an example of Smith's inventory of positions:

0 Danny believes Northern Virginians should not send 40% of the revenue going to Richmond and get only 15% of it back.

0 Danny will work hard to make sure we get more of our tax dollars returned to address gridlock and traffic congestion

0 Danny supports the expansion of the Metrol rail system and improved mass transit measures.

0 Danny believes in utilizing the latest technologies for improving our infrastructure so our communities can reap the benefits for years to come

0 Danny believes we should minimize the tax burden on small businesses.

0 Danny supports a tax structure that will help create new jobs.

0 Danny will support measures that will help attract investment in Virginia.

0 Danny supports the elimination of the food tax.

Now those are all admirable goals. But this is like supporting mom and apple pie. Who exactly doesn't support minimizing tax burdens, getting our fair share of tax revenue back in Northern Virginia, or supporting the latest technology for everything? There's nothing refreshingly bold or innovative about any of this and the Washington Post should be embarrassed to spin it that way. It's straining at gnats.

Indeed Smith - if you look at his website - doesn't even seem to realize that he is running for an open seat. He says here:

For too many years, the representation of the 38th District has been ineffective. In the past, your votes have been taken for granted. And for far too long the same old politics have produced the same old ineffective results. At the end of the day, our entire community pays the price for that ineffectiveness.

That looks like it was originally written to challenge Bob Hull and nobody ever bothered to update it. Does Smith's campaign team not realize that Kaye won a primary and wasn't the ineffective one? Further, if you are really tired of ineffective leadership in the Virginia House of Delegates, then you should consider replacing the GOP leadership team there by voting for a Democrat so that the Democrats could be the majority party and replace that other obstructionist team. Or is Smith running against his own party? Not an effective website at best.

Kaye Kory's website, by contrast, provides a list of priorities too. But each one has a link so that voters can click on the ones that interest them and get detailed explanations of Kaye's thinking on any given topic, such as this:

As your delegate I will work to reverse a rule created during the 2009 legislative session that caps the pay for non-educational teaching staff. This rule cripples school boards’ abilities to hire guidance counselors, school medical staffs, custodial staffs, lunch room staffs, and more. We need to do all we can to make sure our schools run safely, securely, and effectively — academic achievement is a team effort.

Or this

The formula used to fund our schools is broken. It leaves out key factors such as the number of “English as a second language” students, and the number of special education students within the education system. I will work with my fellow Democrats to fix the funding formula and end this unintentional unfunded mandate so that all of the 38th District’s children get the education they need and deserve.

Or even this

Kaye supports the 2009 Northern Virginia Business Community Resolution drafted by the Northern Virginia Transportation Coalition. This coalition of sixteen major Northern Virginia private organizations wants state politicians to secure transportation revenues that will eliminate the transportation deficit. The coalition believes that solving the existing transportation problems is necessary to achieve economic prosperity. The resolution is available in entirety at http://www.nvta.org/index.asp.

VDOT Performance Audit

Virginia needs an independent, performance based, outcome driven approach to solving transportation problems. As your Delegate, I will call for a performance audit of the Virginia Department of Transportation as a foundation for future transportation planning and expenditures. This audit will give us a clear picture of the needed transportation improvements, while offering an increased level of transparency and accountability to the general public. The outcome of the audit will help Virginia set our transportation goals of the future.

Those were just pulled at random. But honestly, if you are a concerned voter who wants to really educate yourself before going to the polls on November 3, you owe to yourself to go to both websites, Danny Smith (here) and Kaye Kory (here) and take the time to compare which would be the superior candidate.

If you do this, two things will happen. First you will come away with a somewhat jaundiced view of the Washington Post endorsement in this district and a few questions about what went into their decision-making abilities. But more important, you will come away convinced that Kaye Kory is overwhelmingly the superior choice for the Virginia House of Delegates. She will be the far better representative for the 38th District and she will far better serve all of Virginia.

Dan Duncan Honored By Tenants and Workers United

Tonight my husband was honored by this group as Labor Partner of the
Year at their 23rd Annual Celebration, at Cecilias in Arlington. Great
party with wonderful food, poetry, dance, and music.

Steve Shannon: No One is Above the Law!

Here is a new, hard hitting ad from Attorney General Candidate, Steve Shannon, criticizing his opponent, Ken Cuccinelli, for his crony politics. Shannon reminds us that "nobody is above the law." A contrast to Cuccinelli who has stated plainly that he won't uphold laws he doesn't agree with. The question is does that extend to choosing which lawbreakers to bring to justice?

Vote for Creigh Deeds on November 3!

On Sunday, the Washington Post gave Creigh Deeds their endorsement. In and of itself that was not surprising. Indeed, it's exactly what both sides have been expecting. But The Post came out swinging with these words:

A LEGACY of sound policies, coupled with the proximity of the federal government, has partially protected Virginia from the harsh retrenchments that the recession has forced on many states. Yet the commonwealth faces a daunting crisis in the form of a drastic shortfall in transportation funding, measured in the tens of billions of dollars, that threatens future prosperity. If the current campaign for governor has clarified anything, it is that state Sen. R. Creigh Deeds, the Democratic nominee, has the good sense and political courage to maintain the forward-looking policies of the past while addressing the looming challenge of fixing the state's dangerously inadequate roads. The Republican candidate, former attorney general Robert F. McDonnell, offers something different: a blizzard of bogus, unworkable, chimerical proposals, repackaged as new ideas, that crumble on contact with reality. They would do little if anything to build a better transportation system.

There are plenty of reasons why Mr. Deeds is the better choice for governor in the Nov. 3 election. He has stood with Gov. Timothy M. Kaine, the incumbent, and his predecessor, now-Sen. Mark R. Warner, in support of the sane fiscal and budgetary choices that have made the state one of the best-governed and most business-friendly in the nation. Mr. McDonnell has generally spurned those policies, most notably by opposing Mr. Warner's landmark tax package in 2004, which attracted bipartisan support as it boosted public safety and education and protected the state's finances. Mr. Deeds has compiled a moderate record on divisive social issues that reflects Virginia's status as a centrist swing state. Mr. McDonnell has staked out the intolerant terrain on his party's right wing, fighting a culture war that seized his imagination as a law student in the Reagan era.

There are many on the right who think the editorial board's endorsement simply confirms the Washington Post's "left wing bias."

But ask a progressive and he will say nothing could be further from the truth. Indeed, we see the Washington Post as solidly centrist, pro-business, often anti-union, and enthusiastic advocates of free trade and globalism policies. But despite the progressives' disagreements with the Washington Post, we have to acknowledge that they have little patience for culture wars that divide people and distract the population from solving the real problems that face us.

The Washington Post, however, acknowledged candidate Bob McDonnell's strong suit: his disciplined campaign, which managed to stay on message; his likable personality, which often displayed graciousness; and his quick wit, which served him well in debates.

As for Mr. McDonnell, he deserves credit for having run a disciplined, focused, policy-oriented campaign. As a candidate, a statewide official and a lawmaker, he has maintained a civil, personable manner. His intellectual agility, even temper and facility with the grit of policy have inspired the respect of colleagues, staffers and rivals. He is a dexterous politician.

Nevertheless, Virginia needs and deserves more than a "dexterous politician" who will remake his image at the drop of the hat and say anything to get elected. We need somebody with the political courage to tell us the truth about what we will need to do to fix our traffic mess, grow the economy, and bring jobs to our commonwealth. Here is the Washington Post's study in contrast on the two candidates. First, here is what they said about Bob McDonnell:

Our differences with him are on questions of policy. The clamor surrounding his graduate dissertation from 1989, in which he disparaged working women, homosexuals, "fornicators" and others of whom he disapproved, has tended to obscure rather than illuminate fair questions about the sort of governor he would make. Based on his 14-year record as a lawmaker -- a record dominated by his focus on incendiary wedge issues -- we worry that Mr. McDonnell's Virginia would be one where abortion rights would be curtailed; where homosexuals would be treated as second-class citizens; where information about birth control would be hidden; and where the line between church and state could get awfully porous. That is a prescription for yesterday's Virginia, not tomorrow's.

Here, meanwhile, is how they portray Deeds

Mr. Deeds has been broadly criticized, not least by stalwarts of his own party, for putting too heavy an emphasis on negative ads about Mr. McDonnell and failing to make an affirmative case for himself. If so, it reflects a failure of campaign strategy and tactics, not a lack of raw material. In fact Mr. Deeds -- a decent, unusually self-effacing man who calls himself "a nobody from nowhere" -- has a compelling life story and an admirable record of achievement as a legislator from rural Bath County.

As we noted in endorsing Mr. Deeds in June's Democratic primary, his record in the legislature ably blended the conservative interests of his constituents with an agenda reflecting the prosperous, politically moderate face of modern-day Virginia. He has been a longtime champion of a more enlightened, bipartisan system of drawing voting districts, a stance to which Mr. McDonnell only recently gravitated. He has played a constructive role in economic development by shaping the Governor's Economic Opportunity Fund, which provides incentives for investors in Virginia, and he has stood for responsible environmental policies, including green jobs and alternative energy research. Despite his rural roots, Mr. Deeds has been ideologically flexible enough to support abortion rights; press for background checks on firearms buyers at gun shows; oppose displaying the Confederate flag on state license plates; and warm to equal rights for homosexuals.

And finally, as the Washington Post reminds us

Mr. Deeds, lagging in the polls, lacks Mr. McDonnell's knack for crisp articulation. But if he has not always been the most adroit advocate for astute policies, that is preferable to Mr. McDonnell's silver-tongued embrace of ideas that would mire Virginia in a traffic-clogged, backward-looking past. Virginians should not confuse Mr. McDonnell's adept oratory for wisdom, nor Mr. Deeds's plain speech for indirection. In fact, it is Mr. Deeds whose ideas hold the promise of a prosperous future.

And that is exactly why you should vote for Creigh Deeds.

If you want to go back to the past and fight the same old culture wars and watch the same old Republican anti-regulatory policies fail again, then by all means vote for the GOP again. But if you want to move forward, grow a prosperous economy, and live in a state that promotes tolerance and moderation, then by all means vote for Creigh Deeds on November 3.

Fimian Raises Money From Same Old Rightwing Sources

Well, the good news for Republicans is that their candidate for 2010 congressional race in the 11th district, Keith Fimian, has raised $2,333,832. In fact, as VA Social Conservative, reports, Fimian has outraised incumbent Gerry Connolly. The bad new, though, for Fimian is that most of the money comes from out of his district and a fair amount from out of state. And once again, it comes from the same Legatus and Ave Maria supporters who funded him last time, including Legatus and Ave Maria founder Thomas Monaghan and his wife Majorie, both of whom maxed out with $4800 each.

Folks, call me crazy but the Monaghans and all those people from Michigan and Ponte Vedra, Florida (both headquarters for Ave Maria) are not donating to Keith Fimian because they have an overwhelming interest in the welfare of the 11th CD. Do they really care that much about our traffic problems, our roadways, our local businesses? I think not. But I think they care passionately about advancing their theocratic social agenda in Virginia.

Steve Shannon on Why He is Right for Virginia Attorney General's Office

Here is Steve Shannon in his own words on why he wants to be Virginia's attorney general and why he thinks he is going to win. What it comes down to is that he does not see the attorney general's job as a stepping stone to promotion of any social agenda, liberal or conservative. He sees it as a job protecting Virginians from lawbreakers, including Internet predators, payday lenders, gangs, and sexual predators who prey on children.



BTW, one disclaimer, the ads that run on this video simply were imported with the clip from YouTube. I derive no income from them, so if you click on any of the ads running on the video, most likely the revenue would go to either YouTube or the creator of the clip.